The Future of Print

Ad-Spending Forecasts Are Glum

Posted in Doom by futureofprint on December 17, 2008

WSJ says for the advertising and media industries, the worst is yet to come. Summary:

  • Publicis Groupe media agency ZenithOptimedia expects U.S. ad spending to drop 6.2% in 2009 to $161.8 billion.
  • WPP’s agency GroupM sees a decline of 3% to $157 billion.
  • Zenith says the current ad spending downturn started in the third quarter and has accelerated through the end of the year, with U.S. ad spending down 3.8% in 2008 to $172.5 billion. Group M is predicting that U.S. ad spending increased 0.3% this year to $162 billion.
  • Online ad spending is expected to increase 5% in 2009, down from 16% growth in 2008, according to GroupM. [We figure this number must include search as well as display, which will probably shrink next year.]
  • Fitch Ratings cautioned that U.S. ad spending next year would drop between 6% and 9%, in line with the steep downturn experienced in 2001 following the bursting of the dot-com bubble and the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks.
  • UBS is forecasting that U.S. ad spending will fall 6% in 2009 but doesn’t anticipate the ad spending decline will be as steep as in 2001.

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